Secular Trend In Rates Remain Lower: Yield Bottom Still Ahead Of Us

It is good to keep track of what is happening in the economy ( not what you hear from the talking heads).

Easy Money

Donald Trump’s victory sparked a tremendous sell-off in the Treasury market from an expectation of fiscal stimulus, but more broadly, from an expectation that a unified-party government can enact business-friendly policies (protectionism, deregulation, tax cuts) which will be inflationary and economically positive. It doesn’t take too much digging to show that the reality is different. The deluge of commentaries suggesting ‘big-reflation’ are short-sighted. Just as before last Tuesday we thought the 10yr UST yield would get below 1%, we still think this now.

Business Cycle

No matter the President, this economic expansion is seven and a half years old (since 6/2009), and is pushing against a difficult history. It is already the 4th longest expansion in the US back to the 1700’s (link is external). As Larry Summers has pointed out (link is external) after 5 years of recovery, you add roughly 20% of a recession’s probability each…

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Situational Awareness


If you don’t have SA, you ARE a target.  See what is going on around you.  I picked up a book the other day just for grins, titled ‘Spy Secrets That Can Save Your Life.’  I thought the title was a little hokey, but thought there might be some good tips to pass on to my kids to help them with OPSEC and SA.  In chapter 7 “How to run countersurveillance like a pro,” I did find some good examples of dealing with personal safety.  Gonna make my daughter read that chapter if nothing else.  Lots of folks already know this stuff, but often it bears repeating, especially to the females in your life.  Sometimes they just don’t take evil seriously.  But that’s not just the ladies, so often we guys get that big macho John Wayne head and become just plain stupid.  You aren’t Rambo, bro.

This is all simple stuff like ‘don’t stand out,’ keep a low profile, be aware of where you are and what is happening around you.  Keep calm and use the color code and OODA loop.


I’m always looking for an edge, particularly as I get older, which may make me a target in the eyes of the goblins.  Keep prepping, keep learning. Be dangerous and stay safe, sheepdog.